By Richard Snowden

After watching the U.S. national team move through the semifinal phase of World Cup qualification with seeming ease, some folks appear to be of the opinion that the upcoming Hexagonal round will be a mere formality.

Don't be so sure about that.

That's why they play the games, as the old saying goes. And no sport offers greater potential for shocking upsets than soccer, the sport legendary Liverpool manager Bill Shankly once called a funny old game for that very reason.

Yes, things are looking promising once again as the U.S. team prepares to duke it out with Mexico in Columbus, Ohio, on Feb. 11 in the latest installment of La Guerra Fria. However, recent qualifying history suggests that the Hexagonal could throw any number of banana peels in the Yanks' path if they let their guard down for even a moment, something U.S. coach Bob Bradley will need to ensure doesn't happen.

What diehard U.S. soccer fan can forget chewing his (or her) nails down to the quick back in 2000, before the Hexagonal had even begun, as the Yanks battled away to little effect against tiny Barbados?

Eventually, Clint Mathis broke the deadlock on 63 minutes and the U.S. team went on to post a deceptive 4-0 win on the strength of three additional late goals, but the lesson is still clear. The Americans came within half an hour of missing the 2002 World Cup, and even in a modest confederation like CONCACAF, nothing can be taken for granted.

The 2001 Hexagonal also offered some tricky moments. After getting off to a soaring start, the Americans set themselves up for another nail-biting finish following a surprise 3-2 home loss to Honduras and a 2-0 road setback to Costa Rica.

Needing a home victory over Jamaica in the penultimate round, the Yanks left it late once again. Joe-Max Moore's decisive penalty kick came with just 10 minutes remaining, proving yet again that the road to the world's greatest sporting event is no easy haul.

Qualification for the 2006 World Cup was a less harrowing affair on balance, although it, too, had its moments. The Americans largely cruised through the Hexagonal, customary hiccup (perhaps hacking cough would be a better metaphor) against Mexico at El Azteca notwithstanding, but in spite of how well the semifinal-round table ultimately panned out for the Yanks, it could easily have looked very different.

In the first two semifinal-round road games, as many will no doubt recall, the U.S. team came within a few minutes of losing both times. Last-gasp strikes from Brian Ching (88th minute vs. Jamaica) and Cobi Jones (91st minute vs. Panama) were required to salvage results from these encounters. Happily, a 6-0 drubbing of Panama at home set the tone for success in the Hexagonal, but once again, road results proved a bit tricky early on.

Sound familiar? It should, because this is the same pattern we observed in the recently concluded 2008 semifinal round of qualifying.

Lest we forget, the Yanks were outplayed pretty much all over the pitch in Guatemala and were fortunate not to give up two or three goals in the first half alone against a fired-up home side. Another nail-biter ensued, with the U.S. team lucky to escape the boiling cauldron of Estadio Mateo Flores with a win thanks to a 70th-minute Carlos Bocanegra header that seemed to deflate Los Chapines and their impassioned fans.

Despite a far less hostile reception in Cuba, the Americans made hard work of dispatching an amateur opponent. A Clint Dempsey strike near halftime settled matters, but the Yanks looked anything but capable for much of the match, proving that road games can cause them serious problems even in friendlier confines.

After thumping Trinidad and Tobago 3-0 and destroying Cuba by a 6-1 margin in home matches, the Americans ensured passage to the Hexagonal, permitting Bradley to use second stringers in the final two games. However, despite closing out the round with a 2-0 win over a young, experimental Guatemala team, a 2-1 loss in Trinidad left a few questions hanging regarding the team's quality in depth.

This year's semifinal round thus offers further proof that it would be unwise to take even modest opponents lightly. In the Hexagonal, even relative minnows Trinidad and Tobago and El Salvador cannot be dismissed out of hand, and the Yanks will certainly be severely tested by Honduras, Costa Rica, and archnemesis Mexico.

Even if the U.S. team encounters little trouble from the Trinidadians or Salvadorans, the road could still prove very bumpy indeed. Only three guaranteed qualification spots are on offer in CONCACAF; the fourth-place finisher must play a home-and-home series against South America's fifth-place finisher to earn a berth.

The message, then, is clear: At this stage, a couple of untimely slip-ups could force the Americans into a two-game playoff against the likes of Uruguay, Colombia, Ecuador or Chile – teams easily as strong as CONCACAF's finest. With so much at stake, the Yanks will need to maintain intense focus throughout the Hexagonal round.

They will also need to improve their finishing, which was often dodgy (particularly on the road) in the semifinal round. Bradley's men are normally solid at the back, but every Hexagonal opponent will feature skillful attackers capable of breaching the U.S. defense. The Yanks have long relied on their stingy backline to compensate for their relative lack of bite up front, but this time around, such a strategy could be perilous.

There is much to like about the Americans' chances, and they are perfectly capable of starting off right with three precious points against the frostbitten Mexicans next month. But make no mistake: The Yanks cannot afford to underestimate anyone. From here on in, the opponents will be less forgiving, and any mistake at this point could prove fatal.

As Stephen Colbert might put it: Gentlemen, you are officially on notice. 

HAVE YOUR SAY…
What are your predictions for the U.S. in the final hexagonal?  Will it be as hard as Snowden claims or has the Red, White and Blue established themselves as the dominant (and shoe in for one of CONCACAF’s 2010 World Cup berths) teams?  Send your emails to Soccer 365 by emailing your opinions. CLICK HERE.  Please include your first name and last initial as well as city.

READER FEEDBACK 

What a defeatist piece of literature, Mr Snowden. Why does it need to be pointed out, to the US fans of all fans, that underestimating an weak opponent that we should be destroying regarless of venue might create difficulties, even though they don't, but they could, but they don't. Who wastes a whole column on such an insignificant problem, has the US team ever looked as if they were taking their opponents lightly? What suggestions would recomend to prevent us from losing points on the roads? Have you pointed out how long-ball tactics don't work and maybe that's why we don't create enough scoring opportunities? That the US should play possesion soccer instead of getting rid of the ball seconds after recovering possesion?
 
I think you should stick to college sports we already have enough USSF yes-man soccer writers in our small communities.

Martell T

We got 3 and a half spots which is more than enough to cruise on by, if it would be 1 or 2 then it would be a different story here, look the US they got too - too many good players that can do the job in this area we call the Concacaf. Yes the other 5 teams (countries) have excellent players that could top any american but we are talking about 2 or 3 of them and the rest are just fill In's, see Honduras with out Suazo or Mexico's back line with out Rafa Marquez and its a totally different team a less of a team in other words and could drop points anywhere. Weak teams will always come out like Canada did in the Semi's and for what I see Costa Rica will be this rounds upset as they look like a old horse that is getting its last days of fame (and for money reasons got the group of the dead, not death). Place one, two or three but we will be at 2010 and won't make the extra trip to South America for sure. For the record the only two ruff games would be in Mexico City and Tegucigalpa (sorry if misspelled!) and recall that Guatemala is out which is the team that goes out to visit with one thing in mind which is "we are happy with a draw so we will but in 1 'kepper 9 defenders and one on top".

Last thing is that if I was a coach and I was told I could get one player to re enforce the club and money was not the question I would take a look at all six teams to see that would be the most helpful player to aid us but if I was told to get 2 to 4 players to make a new line being any one we are having issues with guess what I would go with yanks all the way.
 
Juan L.
aka Gygen